Duke-UNC Odds: North Carolina-Duke Betting Line, Predictions, & Trends To Watch

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane

Key Takeaways

  • 🔥 UNC covered vs Duke, winning 93-84 in their first of two matchups this season. UNC/Duke will meet again in the regular season finale on Saturday, March 9th at 6:30 PM at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham.
  • ⭐️ ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor favors Duke at home, with a 64.2% chance of winning vs UNC. 
  • 🏀 UNC/Duke are currently at the top of the ACC standings as we enter the last month of the regular season. 

If you are a college basketball fan, you know the significance of the Classic Tabacco Road Showdown between the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels. Only about 10 miles of US Highway 15-501 separate UNC-Chapel Hill and Duke University and the historic rivalry is separated by just 48 total all-time points.

I'll be tracking line movement for Duke vs UNC on March 9, 2024 for BetCarolina.com.

UNC vs Duke in 2022 Final Four

Duke vs UNC Best Odds: Who Is Favored To Win?

ESPN Analytics gives Duke a 64.2% chance at beating UNC at home. For now, here are the betting lines for the first matchup that UNC covered and won 93-84 on Feb. 3.  

💰 MoneylineDuke +170, UNC -205 (ESPN BET)
📈 SpreadUNC -4.5
📊 TotalO/U 152.5
Last VerifiedFebruary 23, 2024

In Chapel Hill, the site of the first matchup this season, North Carolina has lost the last 2 meetings. Over the last 5 games, UNC is 2-3 against Duke overall, but one of those wins was a titanic victory during March Madness in the 2022 Final Four that sent the Tar Heels to the National Championship game. The last time Duke was laying points at North Carolina was on Feb. 5, 2022 when the Blue Devils were 3.5-point favorites and won the game by 20.

Duke has been favored and covered the last 2 meetings. The last time UNC won outright was during the historic 2022 Final Four meeting. UNC was a 4-point favorite at home over Duke last year but lost the game outright.

Over the last 20 meetings, both teams have won 10 times. The total has gone over 10 times while UNC has seen a slight advantage against the number going 11-8-1 against their arch-rival. It's one of the most intense games to bet every season.

🔥 MORE: Best NC Sportsbook Promos

Latest Duke-UNC Updates & News February 2024

Duke has had some early-season hiccups with losses to No. 4 Arizona and Arkansas. North Carolina has built momentum after this season got off to a less-than-stellar start with losses to No. 5 UConn, No. 8 Kentucky, and Villanova. Both teams have losses to Georgia Tech. 

  • 📅 Feb 19: Duke climbs to No. 8 in the AP Top 25 Polls after winning its fourth straight game while UNC slides to No. 10 after dropping two of its last four games.
  • 📅 Feb. 3: UNC wins vs Duke at home, winning 93-84 in the first of their two ACC regular season matchups.
  • 📅 Jan. 30: No. 3 UNC is upset by Georgia Tech 74-73, ending their 10-game winning streak.
  • 📅 Jan. 24: Sports betting in the state will be live online in time for the ACC Tournament and March Madness, the state lottery commission announces.
  • 📅 Jan. 15: UNC rises to No. 4 and Duke to No. 7 in the latest Top 25 AP college basketball poll.
  • 📅 Jan. 6: UNC beats No. 16 Clemson with their lowest winning point total of the season so far (65).
  • 📅 Dec. 26: Duke starts to rise up the AP Poll rankings again, up to No. 16.
  • 📅 Dec. 20: UNC bounces back with a win over No. 7 Oklahoma in Norman, while Duke beats No. 10 Baylor.
  • 📅 Dec. 16: Then-No. 14 Kentucky defeats then-No. 9 UNC, 87-83, in Atlanta.
  • 📅 Dec. 5: UNC loses to the defending champion UConn Huskies (then ranked No. 5) at MSG.
  • 📅 Dec. 4: After Duke's loss to Arkansas, they see their biggest drop of the season yet down to No. 22. UNC, on the other hand, rises to their highest ranking (No. 9).
  • 📅 Dec. 2: Duke guard Tyrese Proctor suffers a sprained ankle vs. Georgia Tech.
  • 📅 Nov. 29: Then-No. 7 Duke loses at Arkansas in front of the largest crowd in Bud Walton Arena history.
  • 📅 Nov. 27: Duke rises to No. 7, while UNC drops to No. 17 in the Week 14 AP Poll.
  • 📅 Nov. 20: UNC begins to climb the ranks in Week 3's AP Poll, rising to No. 14.
  • 📅 Nov. 13: After the first two games of the season, Duke drops to No. 9 and UNC drops to No. 20 in the Week 2 AP Poll.
  • 📅 Oct. 26: Duke center Kyle Filipowski is chosen as the ACC Preseason Player of the Year, while North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau is selected as ACC Preseason Rookie of the Year.
  • 📅 Oct. 26: Duke is selected to win the ACC this season by a media panel. UNC is picked to finish 3rd in the conference.
  • 📅 Oct. 16: Duke is ranked the No. 2 team in the country (only behind Kansas), while UNC debuts at No. 19 on the Week 1 AP College Basketball Poll.

⭐️ MORE: Best NC Sports Betting Apps

UNC vs Duke: Consider This Before Making Your Picks

UNC started this season with a 9-0 record at home, while Duke opened up 4-2 away from Durham. The Tar Heels are led by seniors RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, who surely do not want to lose their final home game against their arch-rivals.

Duke is led by the preseason ACC Player of the Year in Kyle Filipowski, a major test in the paint for the Heels. The Blue Devils have the nation's No. 3-ranked recruiting class, and several key contributors will be making their first start in the Dean Dome.

📲 MORE: BetMGM North Carolina Bonus Code

What The Spread Tells Us

The spread opened at 3 points and is now between 4.5-5 points with most sportsbooks. Over the last five games, the highest pregame spread has been 11 points while the lowest has been 3. Historically, this game is extremely close

The favored team only has a record of 3-2 ATS.

What The Moneyline Tells Us

Given the fact that Duke has been underdogs in 2 of the last 3 games in Chapel Hill, it is not surprising to see the North Carolina Tar Heels favored at home in this game. UNC is favored on the moneyline, although it is clear this will be a close game. 

ESPN BET North Carolina has UNC with -175 odds on the moneyline, which translates to a 63.6% implied probability to win. Duke is +150 on the moneyline (40% chance to win).

Prop Bets

Game props for the second matchup between Duke-UNC have not been released. Here's a selection of 5 different prop bets from the previous matchup across DraftKings and ESPN BET.

🏀 Duke 1st Half Moneyline+120 (ESPN BET)
🏀 Halftime/Fulltime: Duke/UNC+550 (ESPN BET)
🏀 Halftime/Fulltime: UNC/Duke+800 (ESPN BET)
🏀 Final Score UNC 79-Duke 74+7500 (DraftKings)
🏀 UNC Race to 25 Points (2nd Half)-155 (DraftKings)
Last VerifiedFebruary 23, 2024

Prop bets are wagers you can make on an individual player or an individual market for one team. You can bet on prop odds for points, rebounds or assists for certain players, and you can also be on team totals and team stats, as well.

Duke vs. UNC Predictions

An ACC regular title could be on the line for both match-ups this season between Duke and North Carolina. Below, I dig into what each team needs to do to win on Feb. 3.

📲 MORE: DraftKings NC Promo Code

Duke Predictions: Chances To Win vs UNC

North Carolina has won 11 of the last 27 meetings in Chapel Hill. In the last 2 meetings home at home against Duke, the Tar Heels has scored under 70 points in both meetings. 

Duke will need to play better on the road than they have earlier this season where they lost both true road games to Arkansas and Georgia Tech.

How The Blue Devils Beat The Tar Heels

  • 📈 Strengths: Kyle Filipowski
  • 📉 Weaknesses: Composure in big games, potential mismatch on RJ Davis

The non-conference schedule wasn't the greatest for Duke. Their best win outside of ACC play was a 9-point win over Michigan State. ACC play opened up with a loss to Georgia Tech, so winning at North Carolina will not be easy.

Duke has had trouble this season in big road games. The last Carolina home win vs Duke was all the way back in 2021. The Dean Dome will be rocking for this one and the Blue Devils will have to show composure to withstand the early push the home crowd will give the Tar Heels.

Obviously, the Blue Devils offense will run through big man Kyle Filipowski. The 7-foot sophomore is a walking double-double. He is a major reason why Duke is a top 25 team in 2-point percentage and his match-up with Armando Bacot will be pivotal. 

However, this contest may hinge on the ability of guards Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain to guard RJ Davis, who has emerged as an ACC Player of the Year candidate.

🏀 MORE: Duke Odds for 2024

UNC Predictions: Chances To Win vs Duke

The last time UNC beat their arch rivals at home back in 2021, it was a dominating 91-73 performance. For Carolina to do that again, the Tar Heels must play well on defense. In all 3 non-conferences losses to Villanova, UConn and Kentucky, North Carolina allowed over 80 points and 40%+ field goal percentage.

How The Tar Heels Beat The Blue Devils

  • 📈 Strengths: Difficult-to-defend inside-out game with RJ Davis and Armando Bacot; supplemental play from Harrison Ingram & Cormac Ryan
  • 📉 Weaknesses: 3-point defense

Holding serve at home vs. Duke is one of the keys to a successful season for the Tar Heels.

With the growth of guard RJ Davis (16th in PPG) and the dominance of Armando Bacot (5th in rebounds per game) in the paint, Carolina posses an inside-out game that has proven challenging for ACC opponents. Forward Harrison Ingram and Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan can go off and have big games on any given night.

However, North Carolina has not been great protecting the 3-point line at times this season. Duke has weapons from the outside in guards Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain, who both shoot over 40% from 3. If the Blue Devils can hit long distance jumpers early, that will open up the paint for their bigs.

🏀 MORE: UNC Odds for 2024

History of Carolina-Duke Games

Since 1999, the Blue Devils have a record of 35-22 over the Tar Heels and a surprising 16-11 SU record in Chapel Hill. The North Carolina moneyline odds for home games have been -4, +3.5 and -4 in the last 3 meetings. For games in Durham, Duke Blue Devils has been favored by 3, 4.5 and 11.

Over the last 20 games, the point total for this game has been flat. The score has gone Over 10 times and Under 10 times. The last 2 meetings have gone under.

All-Time Record: Carolina vs Duke

North Carolina leads the all-time series 144-119. Duke has scored 14,575 points while North Carolina has scored 14,624.

All-Time Best Duke vs UNC Games

Duke-UNC is not just one of the strongest rivalries in college basketball, but in all of sports. It's hosted some of the NCAA greats (Mike Krzyzewski, Dean Smith, Roy Williams, Michael Jordan, Christian Laettner) and turned others into household names (Zion Williamson, Tyler Hansbrough, JJ Redick, Grayson Allen).

Narrowing down their top games of all time is a challenge with over 250 all-time matchups, but I'll give it my best shot.

  • Duke 77, UNC 75 in ACC Tournament (March 10, 1984) Duke upset No. 1-ranked UNC, led by future Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, after going 1-8 against the Tar Heels in the previous four seasons. You could argue this game kicked off the Duke-UNC rivalry we know today.
  • UNC 81, Duke 77 in Final Four (April 2, 2022) The Tar Heels sent legendary Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski into retirement in the first ever Final Four meeting between these two teams.
  • Duke 77, UNC 75 (Feb. 28, 1998) A matchup between top-3 teams, No. 1 Duke beat UNC on a buzzer beater from Roshown McLeod. Both teams would go on to advance far in March Madness that season.
  • UNC 96, Duke 92 in OT (March 2, 1974) Sports Illustrated calls this game the "gold standard for miracle comebacks in college basketball." UNC rallied to send this game to overtime with just 17 seconds left in regulation.

Duke-UNC Odds FAQs

Author

Matt Perrault is a sports gambling content creator based in Las Vegas. He has been working in the media for over 20 years in nearly every aspect of sports betting.

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