Will UNC Make March Madness 2025? Odds of Tar Heels’ Men’s Basketball Making The NCAA Tournament

Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

What used to feel like a given each March has suddenly become a question mark in Chapel Hill. The North Carolina men’s basketball team finds itself squarely on the bubble to make the 68-team field for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, thanks to a stagnant 13-10 record (6-5 ACC).

As of Feb. 4, the Tar Heels are listed among the “next four out” of the March Madness field of 68, according to ESPN bracket guru Joe Lunardi. That ranks alongside ACC rival Wake Forest and conference newcomer SMU; all three are behind the “first four out” of Arizona State, UCF, USC and Xavier. Lunardi projects BYU, Nebraska, Pitt and San Diego State as the last four teams to qualify with byes.

BetCarolina.com broke down some hypothetical odds on whether the Heels will make March madness, with razor thin margins right now either way. Check out our NC sports betting promos as well.

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Will UNC Make March Madness 2025?

 

Percentage Chance

Odds

Yes

36.4%

+175

No

63.6%

-175

For now, head coach Hubert Davis and his staff have their hands full in trying to rebound from a tough week. On Jan. 28, the Tar Heels lost 73-65 at Pitt. Then came an 87-70 shellacking at the hands of hated rival Duke on Feb. 1, knocking UNC to seventh place in the ACC with just over a month to play.

UNC is five games back of Duke (19-2, 11-0), the only ACC team ranked in this week’s Associated Press top 25. The No. 2 Blue Devils are one of the NCAA Tournament favorites across North Carolina sports betting sites.

Will UNC Make NCAA Tournament?

Suddenly, UNC no longer is a favorable bet to miss the field of 68 for the second time in Davis’ four-year tenure in Chapel Hill. We give +175 odds (or 36.4% implied probability) of the Tar Heels making the cut come Selection Sunday, compared with -175 odds (63.7%) that they miss out for the first time since 2023.

Given the Heels’ miserable showing in Durham against the Blue Devils on Saturday, time is running short for the Heels to make their case to be included in March Madness. That starts with a rematch on Saturday against Pittsburgh, this time in Chapel Hill (4 p.m., ESPN2) and ends March 8 at home against Duke in the team’s regular-season finale.

In between, consecutive road clashes Feb. 10 at Clemson and Feb. 15 at Syracuse await next week. From there, the only ranked foe left to bolster UNC’s fleeting tourney hopes is that showdown with Duke. The Heels play North Carolina State (Feb. 19), Virginia (Feb. 22), at Florida State (Feb. 24), Miami (March 1) and at Virginia Tech (March 4) in between. UNC has little breathing room as the NCAA men’s basketball season approaches its home stretch with wagering at NC sportsbook apps.

USA Today photo by Bob Donnan

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Author

Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetCarolina.com specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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