The North Carolina men’s basketball team endured a painful defeat against archrival Duke on Friday night in the ACC tournament semifinals. Now the Tar Heels must do something perhaps even more agonizing.
They have to wait.
UNC, the fifth seed in the ACC tournament, lost to top seed Duke 74-71 in Charlotte. The Tar Heels fell to 22-13 on the season and were unable to move off of the bubble for the NCAA Tournament despite a late comeback in the game. UNC got within one point in the final minute after trailing by 21 at halftime.
Now UNC's postseason fate is in the hands of the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
To get a sense of where UNC stands, BetCarolina.com broke down some hypothetical odds on whether the Heels will make the field of 68 come Sunday, with razor-thin margins either way. Check out our NC sports betting promos as well.
Percentage Chance | Odds | |
Yes | 52.4% | -110 |
No | 47.6% | +110 |
The third loss to the Blue Devils this season left the Tar Heels with nothing to do but hope that results in other conference tournaments go their way.
UNC did everything it could on Friday to stay within shouting distance of the program's 54th all-time NCAA Tournament bid.
But it's still too close to call for March Madness, which is why we have UNC's chances to make the field at virtually even odds as of Saturday morning. We now give coach Hubert Davis and company a 52.4% chance to make the 68-team NCAA Tournament field when brackets are announced tomorrow, on Selection Sunday.
That would translate to -110 odds at NC sportsbooks as a wager. That’s compared with +110 odds (or a 47.6% implied probability) that the Heels miss out on the NCAAs.
How close are the margins for UNC?
Saturday morning, Joe Lunardi of ESPN released an updated bracket projection, factoring in Friday's conference tournament results. He now has UNC in the "First Four Out" category, knocking them out of the "Last Four In" group where UNC resided just 24 hours earlier. CBS analyst Jerry Palm, as he has for the past few days, also has North Carolina as the last team to miss the cut.
When it's that tight, results that have nothing to do with your school or its conference become meaningful. For instance, Boise State (24-9) defeated fellow bubble team San Diego State on Thursday in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West tournament, then knocked off MWC top seed and NCAA Tournament lock New Mexico in Friday's semifinals. Both Palm and Lunardi now have the Broncos among the "Last Four In" pending the result of the conference final tonight against another bubble team, Colorado State.
That is an example of how upsets in conference tournaments can hurt aspiring tournament teams on the bubble. Here is another: Memphis (27-5) is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. If Memphis wins the American Athletic Conference tournament, that league is projected to only get that one bid. But if the Tigers lose – and any UM loss in the conference tourney would be an upset at North Carolina sports betting apps – then they will be an at-large team and the AAC champion will make the field, which means that a bubble team elsewhere is left out.
Had the Tar Heels won the ACC tournament title, they could have ended the drama about earning an at-large bid. Just reaching the final probably would have been sufficient.
Friday should have been a good time to catch the Blue Devils, because star forward Cooper Flagg was out with an ankle injury and Maliq Brown (shoulder) also missed the game. Duke used just eight players but held off UNC's bid for an upset win.
The Tar Heels have +15000 odds at Caesars NC Sportsbook to go on an extraordinary run to the national title.
Will they even get that chance? We'll know in less than 48 hours.
USA Today photo by Bob Donnan
Author
Jim Tomlin has more than 30 years of experience at such publications as the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South and Saturday Tradition. He now lends his expertise in sports, betting and the intersection of those two industries to BetCarolina.com, among other sites.
Cited by leading media organizations, such as:
