2025 UNC Football Bowl Projections

The North Carolina Tar Heels will ride a two-game winning streak into their final nonconference game of the season, and a win over Central Florida Saturday in Orlando would go a long way toward helping the team become bowl eligible under first-year college coach Bill Belichick.

However, bet365 Sportsbook NC lists the 2-1 Heels as a 6.5-point underdog against the Golden Knights. UCF will be the second Big 12 team UNC has played this season. Texas Christian walloped the Tar Heels 48-14 in Belichick’s collegiate debut.

Ahead of the Week 4 tilt, BetCarolina.com has updated its bowl projections for the Tar Heels.

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UNC Football Bowl Projections: Odds For Tar Heels’ 2025-26 Bowl Game

Bowl	Location	Conference Opponent	Odds	Percentage Chance
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa, FL	vs. SEC	+450	18.2%
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl	University Park, TX	vs. Group of 5 or Big 12	+500	16.7%
Go Bowling Military Bowl	Annapolis, MD	vs. AAC	+600	14.3%
Wasabi Fenway Bowl	Boston, MA	vs. AAC	+600	14.3%
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, NY	vs. Big Ten	+700	12.5%
The Field / No Bowl			+325	23.5%

These odds are exclusive to BetCarolina.com and won’t be found with operators offering the best NC sports betting promos.

UNC stands for the University of North Carolina. It’s also the first three letters in uncertain, which is an apt word to describe the Tar Heels bowl chances.

Part of that is due to the Tar Heels themselves. The blowout loss to TCU raised a lot of questions and a similar performance against UCF would increase the odds of the Heels missing out on a bowl. That’s something that did not happen in the six seasons of the Mack Brown 2.0 era.

However, there’s also a lot of uncertainty regarding the ACC. The Clemson Tigers, UNC’s first conference foe on Oct. 4, were expected to be the favorite headed into the season. However, they’re now 1-2, and the Tar Heels do not play Miami, SMU, Louisville or Georgia Tech – the other four schools expected to compete for the conference crown.

So, the Heels could find themselves battling for a spot in the ACC Championship Game or could be fighting to get a sixth win come late November. That’s why the shortest odds are on the field.

North Carolina sportsbook apps will track futures odds all season.

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UNC Bowl Game History Since 2020

Year	Bowl	Result
2024	Fenway Bowl	Loss, 27-14 vs. Connecticut
2023	Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Loss, 30-10 vs. West Virginia
2022	Holiday Bowl	Loss, 28-27 vs. Oregon
2021	Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Loss, 38-21 vs. South Carolina
2020	Orange Bowl	Loss, 41-27 vs. Texas A&M

North Carolina’s recent bowl game history has been anything but pretty, with five straight postseason losses since 2020, by a combined score of 164-99. Only one was decided by less than 10 points (that being a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the 2022 Holiday Bowl).

UNC just played in Boston’s postseason game a year ago, losing 27-14 to UConn to end the second Mack Brown era in Chapel Hill at 6-7. That was the first time that state residents could legally use North Carolina sports betting operators to wager on a postseason Tar Heels game. Interim head coach Freddie Kitchens filled in after Brown was fired. UConn jumped to a 24-7 halftime lead en route to a wire-to-wire win in Beantown.

North Carolina has never played in the First Responder or Pinstripe bowls. The program’s most recent bowl win came in Annapolis, when UNC beat Temple, 55-13, to finish the 2019 season at 7-6.

The Heels’ last trip to Jacksonville for the long-standing Gator Bowl came in 1997, when Brown’s final year of his first stint in Chapel Hill ended with a 42-3 rout of Virginia Tech to cap an 11-1 season. Overall, UNC has appeared in seven Gator Bowls dating to 1963, going 5-2.

Given UNC’s 3-12 postseason record over its past 15 appearances, it might not be a bad idea to start anew in Chapel Hill. That is what Belichick, a six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach, will seek to do this weekend in Charlotte. UNC will be a heavy home favorite (per bet365 North Carolina) over the Spiders inside Kenan Stadium on Saturday.

USA Today photo by Bob Donnan

UNC Football Bowl Q&A

For the 2025-26 college football season, we project North Carolina to play in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, against a team from the SEC. We have +450 odds (an 18.2% chance) of that scenario.

After only three games, UNC is not bowl eligible yet in the 2025-26 season. The most recent postseason appearance for the Tar Heels was in the 2024 Fenway Bowl, a 27-14 loss against UConn.

Author

Steve Bittenbender

Sports Betting Expert & Insider

As a writer and analyst for BetCarolina.com, Steve not only covers gaming news and developments in North Carolina but also provides insights into what they mean for bettors, licensed operators and the state. A veteran journalist with 25 years of experience covering sports, politics and business, Steve has reported on the gambling industry intently over the past five years.