Do NBA Summer League Championships Predict Season Success?

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Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

The Charlotte Hornets have not had much to celebrate since they returned to pro basketball more than 20 years ago, but Sunday was a time for cheers as their prospects won the NBA Summer League title.

First-round pick Kon Knueppel scored 21 points, and second-round selection Ryan Kalkbrenner finished with 15 points – on 5-of-6 shooting – and nine rebounds in the 83-78 victory over the Sacramento Kings in Las Vegas. Both players could have significant roles on a Hornets team that went just 19-63 last season across North Carolina sports betting.

BetCarolina.com wanted to know how winners of the Summer League fared in the ensuing NBA season. 
 

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NBA Summer League Champions’ Season Performance (Since 2015)

Average Regular Season Win %

.506 

Average Conference Rank

8th 

Made Playoffs

55.6% (5 of 9)

Won Playoff Series

22.2% (2 of 9)

Analyzing the Impact of NBA Summer League Wins on Regular Season Success

The average regular season winning percentage is skewed somewhat by the San Antonio Spurs, who went 67-15 after winning the 2015 Summer League. They are one of three teams that finished with records of .500 or better.

Recent history could give Hornets fans some hope. The last two champs, the 2023 Cleveland Cavaliers and the 2024 Miami Heat, both made the playoffs after their Summer League successes. However, both of those teams had contributions from veteran players to lead them to the postseason. Charlotte would likely need Knueppel to play at a Rookie-of-the-Year level alongside fully healthy versions of both LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller to get that far.

BetMGM North Carolina lists the former Duke star as the sixth choice on its futures board for the award. His odds are +2500. His former Blue Devils teammate and top overall pick, Cooper Flagg, is the favorite at -225.

Oddsmakers still have their doubts about the Hornets playing deep into April or later. At bet365, Charlotte is priced at +1200 to make the postseason for just the fourth time since coming back to the league and has odds of -3000 to miss the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season.

USA Today photo by Lucas Peltier.

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Steve Bittenbender
Steve Bittenbender
Sports Betting Expert & Insider

As a writer and analyst for BetCarolina.com, Steve not only covers gaming news and developments in North Carolina but also provides insights into what they mean for bettors, licensed operators and the state. A veteran journalist with 25 years of experience covering sports, politics and business, Steve has reported on the gambling industry intently over the past five years.

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