Is North Carolina A Swing State For 2024 Presidential Election?

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

Few states in America will have more meaning in this fall’s general election, not just in the race for the White House, but for control of Congress and the state legislature in Raleigh as well, with both parties eying the Tar Heel State as a must-win entering the fall.  

For the Democrats, the hope of a second term for Joe Biden likely rests on being able to shore up a firewall of support from traditionally right-leaning states like North Carolina and Georgia, as the party looks to capture N.C. for the first time since Barack Obama did so in 2008.  

That election also happened to be the lone recent presidential vote that went in favor of the Democrats, with George W. Bush carrying the state in 2004, as did Mitt Romney and Donald Trump in each of the last two elections.  

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by 1.3%, finishing ahead of Biden by a 49.9%-to-48.6% margin.

Four years later,, home to all things North Carolina sports betting, wanted to know whether North Carolina and its 16 electoral votes can be a true swing state in the 2024 election, setting some hypothetical odds on the vote based on some of the nation’s preeminent polls.  

Is North Carolina A Red Or Blue State 2024?

Utilizing the average results of 3 current polls for the 2024 Presidential Election, developed the following odds of how the state will vote in 2024. The 3 polls were “Franklin & Marshall,” “Bloomberg / Morning Consult” and “Susquehanna Polling.” 

Party Odds Pct. Chance
Democrat (Blue) +11047.6%
Republican (Red) -100 50.0%

🔥 BetCarolina is your home for the best NC sportsbook promos.

Recent North Carolina Voting In Presidential Elections

Election YearDemocratic Candidate Republican Candidate
2020 Joe Biden (48.6%)Donald Trump (49.9%)
2016 Hillary Clinton (46.2%) Donald Trump (49.8%)
2012Barack Obama (48.4%) Mitt Romney (50.4%)
2008 Barack Obama (49.7%) John McCain (49.4%)
2004 John Kerry (43.6%)George W. Bush (56.0%)

Recent North Carolina Voting In Presidential Elections

The Democrats have been down bad in North Carolina for a long time, with the party only carrying the Tar Heel State in 1976 and 2008.  Prior to that, the last election to go in the party’s favor was in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater by just under 13% to finish off a dominant era for the party, which carried North Carolina each election between 1932 and 1964.  

After realignment in the South, the GOP became the new tour de force in the state’s political machinations, with no Democrat exceeding 47.18% between 1968 and Obama’s victory 40 years later, as Jimmy Carter’s 1980 vote count was the best the party would see until 2008.  

This year, the Democrats are the underdogs once again in the Tar Heel State, coming in at +110 to the Republican’s -100 standing, as Biden and his colleagues hope to use a surprise win in North Carolina to stunt whatever hope of a comeback the GOP has in the 2024 presidential election. 

Keep tabs on for more political updates, including Nikki Haley 2024 odds.


Christopher Boan is a lead writer at specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

Cited by leading media organizations, such as: