Is North Carolina A Swing State For 2024 Presidential Election?

Until a month ago, the thought of North Carolina being a swing state in the 2024 presidential election seemed far-fetched. However, that’s exactly what’s happening after President Joe Biden left the race last month, and Vice President Kamala Harris won the Democratic nomination.

What was once considered a leaning red state for former President Donald Trump is now a toss-up, The Cook Political Report announced Tuesday. That decision comes as polls released within the last couple of weeks have shown both Harris and Trump holding slight leads that are well within the margin of error.

BetCarolina.com - your trusted source for North Carolina sports betting - has discovered that interest in the presidential election is growing within North Carolina as the race in the Tar Heel State tightens. With both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions wrapped up, we wanted to know the breakdown of what states are more interested in Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump. Using Google Trends, we found the top seven potential swing states search interest scores for both “Kamala Harris” and “Donald Trump.” Then, we found which candidate North Carolina metro regions are searching for. The search period was over the past 30 days through August 26, 2024. 

North Carolina Metro Breakdown: Harris vs. Trump

It’s not a shock to see that the scores for Harris are significantly higher in the metro areas. That’s where Democrats tend to fare better, with Republican candidates performing well in the suburbs and rural communities. In addition, college-educated voters have become more likely to vote for Democrats, and both Raleigh and Durham rank in the top 20 nationally for the percentage of college graduates, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Wagering on elections is not permitted in the U.S., so you cannot find odds on the race at any licensed North Carolina sports betting apps. The closest legal alternative for Americans is PredictIt, an online political futures exchange. Shares on Harris winning in November were trading at 55 cents on Wednesday afternoon. With shares of the winning candidate paying out at $1 each, Harris’ odds are roughly -122. Trump shares, meanwhile, were trading at 48 cents, the equivalent of +108 odds.

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Swing States: Harris vs. Trump

North Carolina has typically backed Republicans in recent elections, with the G.O.P. candidate winning the state’s electoral college votes in 10 of the last 11 elections. The lone exception was in 2008 when Barack Obama edged John McCain, 49.7% to 49.4%. Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, although his margin in the last election was much narrower. Trump beat Biden 49.9% to 48.6% four years ago, compared to his 49.8% to 46.2% win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

However, North Carolina may follow the trend of its neighboring states, Virginia and Georgia, in turning from red to blue. Republicans won Virginia in every presidential election except one from 1952 to 2004. However, it’s been a solid Democratic state ever since. Georgia voters backed Republicans in 8 of 9 elections between 1984 and 2016. However, Biden beat Trump there in 2020, 49.5% to 49.2%. Like North Carolina, The Cook Political Report also considers Georgia a toss-up for the election that will take place in less than 10 weeks.

Author

Steve Bittenbender

Sports Betting Expert & Insider

@BittGDCG

As a writer and analyst for BetCarolina.com, Steve not only covers gaming news and developments in North Carolina but also provides insights into what they mean for bettors, licensed operators and the state. A veteran journalist with 25 years of experience covering sports, politics and business, Steve has reported on the gambling industry intently over the past five years.