As the 2025 college football season approaches, it’s worth wondering who incoming North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick will turn to for the team’s Sept. 1 opener against TCU under center.
BetCarolina.com, as part of our North Carolina sports betting coverage, broke down odds on who will be the starting quarterback against the Horned Frogs, with a Sun Belt Conference transfer currently holding the best odds.
Quarterback | Year | Odds | Percent Chance |
Gio Lopez | (RS) S0 | -150 | 60.0% |
Bryce Baker | FR | +315 | 24.1% |
Max Johnson | GR | +550 | 15.4% |
The Field |
| +100000 | 0.1% |
For Week 1, we’re going with redshirt sophomore transfer Gio Lopez as the favorite to be QB1 for the Tar Heels at -150 odds. These odds are exclusive to BetCarolina.com, where you can follow our UNC football bowl projections all season.
Lopez started for the South Alabama Jaguars in 2024, throwing for 2,559 yards and adding 463 yards on the ground with 25 touchdowns in total. He threw for 18 TDs and had seven more rushing for a team that finished 7-6.
Overall, Lopez was the only QB in the FBS ranks to throw for 2,500 yards, hit on more than 65% of his passes and run for five yards or more per attempt in 2024. That inspired Belichick, the six-time Super Bowl champion head coach, to pursue him out of the portal during the offseason for North Carolina football.
Given Lopez’s hand-picked status by UNC’s new head coach, it’s no wonder the third-year NCAA gunslinger is the overwhelming favorite to start against TCU. But two more options (Bryce Baker at +315 and Max Johnson at +550) must be accounted for on our Tar Heels QB1 odds board.
Johnson is the most well-traveled of the lot, having suited up for LSU for two years before transferring to Texas A&M in 2022 and playing two more seasons in College Station. The graduate student appeared in one game with the Heels in 2024 before suffering a season-ending injury.
Customers at North Carolina sportsbook apps would also do well to keep an eye on Baker, a true freshman. He is a four-star recruit out of East Forsyth High School in Kernersville, about 75 miles west of the Chapel Hill campus. Baker was the 12th-ranked quarterback in the nation and the 6-foot-3 QB picked the Tar Heels over Penn State, Boston Collete, Duke and Florida.
Regardless of who suits up at QB for UNC come Sept. 1, what we know right now is that oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook North Carolina aren’t buying what Belichick’s selling in his debut season at UNC. His team is listed as a three-point home underdog against TCU in Week 1 with a +130 moneyline on the ACC stalwarts from Chapel Hill in their 2025 season opener.
USA Today photo by Jim Dedmon
In our projections, Gio Lopez is the favorite with a 60% implied chance. He brings game experience and is seen as the best fit for the offense heading into the season.
It’s a tight race. Lopez leads, but freshman Bryce Baker has emerged as a serious challenger, holding roughly a 24% chance of winning the job. Veteran Max Johnson remains in the mix as a seasoned backup option.
Coaching evaluations in fall camp, scheme fit, leadership traits and practice performance are all key factors. Experience, mobility, and grasp of the offense are also playing major roles in determining the starter.
It’s possible, but highly unlikely. Betting markets give “the field” a 0.1% chance, signaling near-universal confidence that the starter will come from the top three listed candidates.
Author
Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetCarolina.com specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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