Game week is upon us for the North Carolina Tar Heels, with Year One of the Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill kicking off at 8 p.m. local time Monday, with UNC hosting the unranked TCU Horned Frogs on ESPN and ESPNU. Now that we know that former South Alabama QB Gio Lopez will take the QB1 snaps against the Horned Frogs in Week 1, it’s worth breaking down how the QB contest got here and who could step in under center if Lopez falters.
BetCarolina.com will keep tabs on the Heels across North Carolina sports betting all season.
Quarterback | Year | Odds | Percent Chance |
Gio Lopez | (RS) SO | -999900 | 99.99% |
Bryce Baker | FR | +999900 | .01% |
Max Johnson | GR | +999900 | .01% |
The Field |
| +999900 | .01% |
Come Week 1 of North Carolina football season in 2025, Belichick named the former starter at South Alabama to take the Tar Heels’ snaps under center, officially anointing the third year NCAA gunslinger the winner of the top spot ahead of graduate transfer Max Johnson and true freshman Bryce Baker.
Given how well Lopez played for the Jaguars in 2024, throwing for 2,559 yards and adding 465 more on the ground with 25 touchdowns in total, with 18 coming through the air and seven more in the rushing game, the thought of his dual threat capabilities teaming up with a coach of Belichick’s stature has to be music to Heels’ fans’ ears.
Lopez was the only QB in the FBS ranks to throw for 2,500 yards, hit on more than 65% of his passes and run for five yards or more per attempt in 2024, ultimately inspiring the six-time Super Bowl champion head coach to pursue him out of the portal during the offseason and name him the QB against TCU on Monday night.
Given Lopez’s hand-picked status by UNC’s new head coach, it’s no wonder the Lopez got the nod, beating out the youthful Baker and experienced Johnson in 2025, in a year where the Tar Heels have +4000 odds of winning the ACC Championship for the first time since 1980 this fall.
Of the three, Johnson’s the most well-traveled of the lot, having suited up for LSU for two years before transferring to Texas A&M in 2022 and playing two more seasons in College Station, before appearing in one game with the Heels in 2024.
Baker is a true freshman this fall, coming to UNC as a four-star recruit out of East Forsyth High School, where he was the 12th ranked quarterback in the nation, with the 6’3 QB picking the Tar Heels over Penn State, Boston Collete, Duke and Florida.
These UNC quarterback odds are developed exclusively for BetCarolina.com, your source for the best NC sports betting promos.
USA Today photo by Jim Dedmon
Gio Lopez was the favorite with an 80% implied chance. He brings game experience and is seen as the best fit for the offense heading into the season.
It was a tight race. Lopez led, but freshman Bryce Baker emerged as a serious challenger, holding roughly a 13% chance of winning the job. Veteran Max Johnson remained in the mix as a seasoned backup option.
Coaching evaluations in fall camp, scheme fit, leadership traits and practice performance are all key factors. Experience, mobility, and grasp of the offense are also playing major roles in determining the starter.
It’s possible, but highly unlikely. Betting markets gave “the field” a 0.1% chance, signaling near-universal confidence that the starter will come from the top three listed candidates.
Author
Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetCarolina.com specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
Cited by leading media organizations, such as:
