UNC Football Bowl Projections: Odds For Tar Heels’ 2025-26 Bowl Game

Any hope of a Hollywood debut season for North Carolina football head coach Bill Belichick quickly devolved into the stuff of nightmares when the Tar Heels were routed 48-14 by TCU in the 2025 opener at Kenan Stadium. The Tar Heels entered as a 3.5-point underdog with ESPN BET North Carolina and scored first before surrendering 41 unanswered points to their visitors from Fort Worth.

Thankfully, Belichick and the Heels bounced back on the road against Charlotte, getting The Hoodie his first collegiate win ahead of a Week 3 tilt against Richmond.

With that Week 2 win in mind, BetCarolina.com updated UNC’s year-end bowl projections.

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UNC Football Bowl Projections: Odds For Tar Heels’ 2025-26 Bowl Game

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After UNC’s 34-point beatdown in Week 1, a little home cooking might be what the doctor ordered for Belichick and company, which is exactly what the Heels’ top bowl destination on our odds board offers.

Belichick’s hometown of Annapolis, Maryland, is still our top projected landing spot this bowl season. We give the Military Bowl +450 odds of getting the Tar Heels come Dec. 27 for a matchup against a member of the American Conference inside Navy-Marine Corps. Stadium.

Also keep an eye on the First Responder Bowl in Dallas, which checks in at +500 to land UNC, while the Wasabi Fenway and Pinstripe bowls (+600 each) and Gator Bowl (+650) round out the list right now. North Carolina sportsbook apps will track futures odds all season.

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UNC Bowl Game History Since 2020

North Carolina’s recent bowl game history has been anything but pretty, with five straight postseason losses since 2020, by a combined score of 164-99. Only one was decided by less than 10 points (that being a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the 2022 Holiday Bowl).

UNC just played in Boston’s postseason game a year ago, losing 27-14 to UConn to end the second Mack Brown era in Chapel Hill at 6-7. That was the first time that state residents could legally use North Carolina sports betting operators to wager on a postseason Tar Heels game. Interim head coach Freddie Kitchens filled in after Brown was fired. UConn jumped to a 24-7 halftime lead en route to a wire-to-wire win in Beantown.

North Carolina has never played in the First Responder or Pinstripe bowls. The program’s most recent bowl win came in Annapolis, when UNC beat Temple, 55-13, to finish the 2019 season at 7-6.

The Heels’ last trip to Jacksonville for the long-standing Gator Bowl came in 1997, when Brown’s final year of his first stint in Chapel Hill ended with a 42-3 rout of Virginia Tech to cap an 11-1 season. Overall, UNC has appeared in seven Gator Bowls dating to 1963, going 5-2.

Given UNC’s 3-12 postseason record over its past 15 appearances, it might not be a bad idea to start anew in Chapel Hill. That is what Belichick, a six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach, will seek to do this weekend in Charlotte. UNC will be a heavy home favorite (per bet365 North Carolina) over the Spiders inside Kenan Stadium on Saturday.

USA Today photo by Bob Donnan

Author

Christopher Boan

@cgboan

Christopher Boan is a lead writer at BetCarolina.com specializing in covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.