2025 UNC Football Bowl Projections

North Carolina’s bowl chances in coach Bill Belichick’s first season at Chapel Hill took a serious hit this past weekend, but there’s still some time to mount a comeback with the Tar Heels set to start ACC play in two weeks across North Carolina sports betting.

However, with ESPN’s Football Power Index ranking Belichick’s Heels 86th out of 136 FBS teams and fourth-worst among Power 4 schools, it may require a turnaround like the one Belichick’s New England Patriots forged in Super Bowl LI eight years ago.

This time, the Hoodie doesn’t have Tom Brady under center.

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UNC Football Bowl Projections: Odds For Tar Heels’ 2025-26 Bowl Game

Bowl	Location	Conference Opponent	Odds	Percentage Chance
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa, FL	vs. SEC	+1100	8.3%
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl	University Park, TX	vs. Group of 5 or Big 12	+1500	6.3%
Go Bowling Military Bowl	Annapolis, MD	vs. AAC	+1500	6.3%
Wasabi Fenway Bowl	Boston, MA	vs. AAC	+2000	4.8%
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, NY	vs. Big Ten	+3500	2.8%
The Field / No Bowl			-250	71.4%

These odds are exclusive to BetCarolina.com and won’t be found with operators offering the best NC sports betting promos.

The Tar Heels did not have a fun trip to Orlando this past weekend as UCF dispatched UNC 34-9. With that defeat, Carolina is 0-2 against Big 12 schools this season with those losses coming by an average of 29.5 points.

Ouch.

This weekend, North Carolina gets an off week to prepare for hosting a Clemson team that might rival the Heels in terms of being the ACC’s biggest disappointment. Clemson started the season ranked fourth in the Associated Press’ Top 25 poll, but the Tigers are now 1-3 and 0-2 in the conference.

Yes, a win over the Dabo Swinney’s Tigers would still be big for UNC, but it will not carry nearly the weight that it would have at the beginning of the season. Another factor in Carolina’s favor is a cotton-soft conference schedule. The highest ranked team on its schedule, according to ESPN’s FPI, is Virginia. The Cavaliers come in at No. 39, five spots ahead of Clemson. No other ACC team on UNC’s docket is higher than North Carolina State, currently 57th.

UCF, by the way, is 42nd.

That ranking system is not convinced in the Heels’ chances, giving Belichick’s team a projected record of 4.5-7.5. It also only gives UNC a 21.1% chance of winning the six games needed to become bowl eligible.

Failing to win six games would keep the Tar Heels home during bowl season for the first time since 2018.

North Carolina sportsbook apps will track futures odds all season.

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UNC Bowl Game History Since 2020

Year	Bowl	Result
2024	Fenway Bowl	Loss, 27-14 vs. Connecticut
2023	Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Loss, 30-10 vs. West Virginia
2022	Holiday Bowl	Loss, 28-27 vs. Oregon
2021	Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Loss, 38-21 vs. South Carolina
2020	Orange Bowl	Loss, 41-27 vs. Texas A&M

North Carolina’s recent bowl game history has been anything but pretty, with five straight postseason losses since 2020, by a combined score of 164-99. Only one was decided by less than 10 points (that being a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the 2022 Holiday Bowl).

UNC just played in Boston’s postseason game a year ago, losing 27-14 to UConn to end the second Mack Brown era in Chapel Hill at 6-7. That was the first time that state residents could legally use North Carolina sports betting operators to wager on a postseason Tar Heels game. Interim head coach Freddie Kitchens filled in after Brown was fired. UConn jumped to a 24-7 halftime lead en route to a wire-to-wire win in Beantown.

North Carolina has never played in the First Responder or Pinstripe bowls. The program’s most recent bowl win came in Annapolis, when UNC beat Temple, 55-13, to finish the 2019 season at 7-6.

The Heels’ last trip to Jacksonville for the long-standing Gator Bowl came in 1997, when Brown’s final year of his first stint in Chapel Hill ended with a 42-3 rout of Virginia Tech to cap an 11-1 season. Overall, UNC has appeared in seven Gator Bowls dating to 1963, going 5-2.

USA Today photo by Bob Donnan

UNC Football Bowl Q&A

For the 2025-26 college football season, UNC is currently projected to not play in a bowl game with the odds at -250 (71.4% chance).

After only four games, UNC is not bowl eligible yet in the 2025-26 season. The most recent postseason appearance for the Tar Heels was in the 2024 Fenway Bowl, a 27-14 loss against UConn.

Author

Steve Bittenbender

Sports Betting Expert & Insider

As a writer and analyst for BetCarolina.com, Steve not only covers gaming news and developments in North Carolina but also provides insights into what they mean for bettors, licensed operators and the state. A veteran journalist with 25 years of experience covering sports, politics and business, Steve has reported on the gambling industry intently over the past five years.