Duke-UNC Odds: North Carolina-Duke Betting Line, Predictions, & Trends To Watch

Duke vs UNC Best Odds: Who Is Favored To Win?

Duke is favored to win against UNC on March 9. FanDuel North Carolina has Duke at -5.5.

ESPN Analytics gives Duke a 71.4% chance at beating UNC at home. 

Over the last 5 games, UNC is 3-3 against Duke overall. One of those wins was a titanic victory during March Madness in the 2022 Final Four that sent the Tar Heels to the National Championship game. 

The last time Duke was laying points at North Carolina was on Feb. 5, 2022, when the Blue Devils were 3.5-point favorites and won the game by 20.

Although UNC was favored and covered in the first matchup this year, Duke has been favored and covered the previous 2 meetings. Before this season, the historic 2022 Final Four game between these programs was the last time North Carolina won outright. UNC was a 4-point favorite at home over Duke last year but lost the game outright.

Over the last 20 meetings, both teams have won 10 times. The total has gone over 10 times while UNC has seen a slight advantage against the number going 11-8-1 against their arch-rival. It's one of the most intense games to bet every season.

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Latest Duke-UNC Updates & News April 2024

Duke has had some early-season hiccups with losses to No. 4 Arizona and Arkansas. North Carolina has built momentum after this season got off to a less-than-stellar start with losses to No. 5 UConn, No. 8 Kentucky, and Villanova. Both teams have losses to Georgia Tech. 

• 📅 March 7: Duke sophomore Kyle Filipowski is named a finalist for the Karl Malone Power Forward of the Year Award.
• 📅 March 4: UNC moves up to No. 7 in the AP Top 25 Poll, while Duke moves to No. 9.
• 📅 March 1: Pre-registration opens for sports betting in North Carolina.
• 📅 Feb 24: Duke is upset on the road by unranked Wake Forest while UNC narrowly escaped with a victory over  Virginia. 
• 📅 Feb 19: Duke climbs to No. 8 in the AP Top 25 Polls after winning its fourth straight game while UNC slides to No. 10 after dropping two of its last four games.
• 📅 Feb. 3: UNC wins vs Duke at home, winning 93-84 in the first of their two ACC regular season matchups.
• 📅 Jan. 30: No. 3 UNC is upset by Georgia Tech 74-73, ending their 10-game winning streak.
• 📅 Jan. 24: Sports betting in the state will be live online in time for the ACC Tournament and March Madness, the state lottery commission announces.
• 📅 Jan. 15: UNC rises to No. 4 and Duke to No. 7 in the latest Top 25 AP college basketball poll.
• 📅 Jan. 6: UNC beats No. 16 Clemson with their lowest winning point total of the season so far (65).
• 📅 Dec. 26: Duke starts to rise up the AP Poll rankings again, up to No. 16.
• 📅 Dec. 20: UNC bounces back with a win over No. 7 Oklahoma in Norman, while Duke beats No. 10 Baylor.
• 📅 Dec. 16: Then-No. 14 Kentucky defeats then-No. 9 UNC, 87-83, in Atlanta.
• 📅 Dec. 5: UNC loses to the defending champion UConn Huskies (then ranked No. 5) at MSG.
• 📅 Dec. 4: After Duke's loss to Arkansas, they see their biggest drop of the season yet down to No. 22. UNC, on the other hand, rises to their highest ranking (No. 9).
• 📅 Dec. 2: Duke guard Tyrese Proctor suffers a sprained ankle vs. Georgia Tech.
• 📅 Nov. 29: Then-No. 7 Duke loses at Arkansas in front of the largest crowd in Bud Walton Arena history.
• 📅 Nov. 27: Duke rises to No. 7, while UNC drops to No. 17 in the Week 14 AP Poll.
• 📅 Nov. 20: UNC begins to climb the ranks in Week 3's AP Poll, rising to No. 14.
• 📅 Nov. 13: After the first two games of the season, Duke drops to No. 9 and UNC drops to No. 20 in the Week 2 AP Poll.
• 📅 Oct. 26: Duke center Kyle Filipowski is chosen as the ACC Preseason Player of the Year, while North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau is selected as ACC Preseason Rookie of the Year.
• 📅 Oct. 26: Duke is selected to win the ACC this season by a media panel. UNC is picked to finish 3rd in the conference.
• 📅 Oct. 16: Duke is ranked the No. 2 team in the country (only behind Kansas), while UNC debuts at No. 19 on the Week 1 AP College Basketball Poll.

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UNC vs Duke: Consider This Before Making Your Picks

UNC carries a 12-1 record at home this year, while Duke is currently 13-2. The Tar Heels are led by seniors RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, who played well in their final home game against their arch-rivals.

Duke is led by the preseason ACC Player of the Year in Kyle Filipowski, a major test in the paint for the Heels. The Blue Devils have the nation's No. 3-ranked recruiting class, and several key contributors that made their first start in the Dean Dome. 

The Blue Devils are favored at home and poised to make a statement after struggling to slow down the Tar Heels for the majority of their first matchup.

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UNC vs Duke Spread

The UNC vs Duke spread is set at 5.5 points currently.

In the first matchup, the spread opened at 3 points and landed between 4.5-5 points with most sportsbooks. Over the last five games, the highest pregame spread has been 11 points while the lowest has been 3. Historically, this game is extremely close. 

The favored team only has a record of 3-2 ATS.

UNC vs Duke Moneyline

Duke is favored on the moneyline with -200 odds. Converted to implied probability, Duke's chances to win sit at 66.7%. UNC's moneyline odds are +164 (37.9% implied probability chance to win).

But, I don't have to remind you, this will be a close game.

Given the fact that Duke has been underdogs in 2 of the last 3 games in Chapel Hill, it was not surprising to see the North Carolina Tar Heels favored at home in the first matchup game.

In their first matchup, ESPN BET North Carolina had UNC with -175 odds on the moneyline, which translates to a 63.6% implied probability to win. Duke was +150 on the moneyline (40% chance to win).

Duke/Carolina Prop Bets

Game props for Duke-UNC are listed at DraftKings North Carolina:

Prop bets are wagers you can make on an individual player or an individual market for one team. You can bet on prop odds for points, rebounds or assists for certain players, and you can also be on team totals and team stats, as well.

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Duke vs. UNC Predictions

An ACC regular title could be on the line in the regular season finale between Duke and North Carolina. Below, I dig into what each team needs to do to win on March 9.

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Duke Predictions: Chances To Win vs UNC

Duke is 17-9 at home vs UNC since 1999 and 3-3 in their last six matchups. The Tar Heels have defeated the Blue Devils in Durham in two of the last three years. Duke is currently 13-2 at home and the Blue Devils are expected to be favored against the Heels in an exciting matchup between two of the best teams in the country. 

Although UNC carries a 7-2 record on the road, Duke earns a slight edge over Carolina in front of a packed house of Cameron Crazies. 

How The Blue Devils Beat The Tar Heels

• 📈 Strengths: Kyle Filipowski
• 📉 Weaknesses: Composure in big games, potential mismatch on RJ Davis

The non-conference schedule wasn't the greatest for Duke. Their best win outside of ACC play was a 9-point win over Michigan State. ACC play opened up with a loss to Georgia Tech, so winning at North Carolina will not be easy.

Duke has had trouble this season in big road games. Prior to this season, the last Carolina home win vs Duke was all the way back in 2021. The Dean Dome will be rocking for this one and the Blue Devils will have to show composure to withstand the early push the home crowd will give the Tar Heels.

Obviously, the Blue Devils offense will run through big man Kyle Filipowski. The 7-foot sophomore is a walking double-double. He is a major reason why Duke is a top 25 team in 2-point percentage and his match-up with Armando Bacot will be pivotal. 

However, this contest may hinge on the ability of guards Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain to guard RJ Davis, who has emerged as an ACC Player of the Year candidate.

🏀 MORE: Duke Odds for 2024

UNC Predictions: Chances To Win vs Duke

Prior to this year, the last time UNC beat their arch-rivals at home was back in 2021, in was a dominating 91-73 performance. For Carolina to do that again, the Tar Heels must play well on defense. 

In all 3 non-conferences losses to Villanova, UConn and Kentucky, North Carolina allowed over 80 points and 40%+ field goal percentage. UNC has struggled at times on the road and at neutral sites but if the Tar heels want to win in Durham, they will need to clamp down on defense. 

How The Tar Heels Beat The Blue Devils

• 📈 Strengths: Difficult-to-defend inside-out game with RJ Davis and Armando Bacot; supplemental play from Harrison Ingram & Cormac Ryan
• 📉 Weaknesses: 3-point defense

Holding serve at home vs. Duke is one of the keys to a successful season for the Tar Heels, but this team will certainly be hungry for a win in Cameron. 

With the growth of guard RJ Davis (16th in PPG) and the dominance of Armando Bacot (5th in rebounds per game) in the paint, Carolina posses an inside-out game that has proven challenging for ACC opponents. Forward Harrison Ingram and Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan can go off and have big games on any given night.

However, North Carolina has not been great protecting the 3-point line at times this season. Duke has weapons from the outside in guards Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain, who both shoot over 40% from 3. If the Blue Devils can hit long distance jumpers early, that will open up the paint for their bigs.

🏀 MORE: UNC Odds for 2024

History of Carolina-Duke Games

Since 1999, the Blue Devils have a record of 35-22 over the Tar Heels and a surprising 16-11 SU record in Chapel Hill. The North Carolina moneyline odds for home games have been -4, +3.5 and -4 in the last 3 meetings. For games in Durham, Duke Blue Devils has been favored by 3, 4.5 and 11.

Over the last 20 games, the point total for this game has been flat. The score has gone Over 10 times and Under 10 times. The last 2 meetings have gone under.

All-Time Record: Carolina vs Duke

North Carolina leads the all-time series 144-119. Duke has scored 14,575 points while North Carolina has scored 14,624.

All-Time Best Duke vs UNC Games

Duke-UNC is not just one of the strongest rivalries in college basketball, but in all of sports. It's hosted some of the NCAA greats (Mike Krzyzewski, Dean Smith, Roy Williams, Michael Jordan, Christian Laettner) and turned others into household names (Zion Williamson, Tyler Hansbrough, JJ Redick, Grayson Allen).

Narrowing down their top games is a challenge with over 250 all-time matchups, but I'll give it my best shot.

• Duke 77, UNC 75 in ACC Tournament (March 10, 1984) Duke upset No. 1-ranked UNC, led by future Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, after going 1-8 against the Tar Heels in the previous four seasons. You could argue this game kicked off the Duke-UNC rivalry we know today.
• UNC 81, Duke 77 in Final Four (April 2, 2022) The Tar Heels sent legendary Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski into retirement in the first ever Final Four meeting between these two teams.
• Duke 77, UNC 75 (Feb. 28, 1998) A matchup between top-3 teams, No. 1 Duke beat UNC on a buzzer beater from Roshown McLeod. Both teams would go on to advance far in March Madness that season.
• UNC 96, Duke 92 in OT (March 2, 1974) Sports Illustrated calls this game the "gold standard for miracle comebacks in college basketball." UNC rallied to send this game to overtime with just 17 seconds left in regulation.

Author

Matt Perrault

@sportstalkmatt

Matt Perrault is a sports gambling content creator based in Las Vegas. He has been working in the media for over 20 years in nearly every aspect of sports betting.